Election 2025 - Carleton Riding
- Tony Lam
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
Updated: 9 minutes ago
Updated: May 5 2025 12:00 PST.
2021
Kanata-Carleton Population: 116651
Voters: 86836
Turnout: 63156
Winner: Jenna Sudds (Liberal) 26394 votes
2nd: Jennifer McAndrew (Conservative) 24373 votes
3rd: Melissa Coenraad (NDP) 8822 votes
4th: Scott Miller (PPC) 1858 votes
5th: Jennifer Purdy (Green) 1709
Carleton Population: 131375
Voters: 87807
Turnout: 70873
Winner: Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) 35356 votes
2nd: Gustave Roy (Liberal) 24298 votes
3rd: Kevin Hua (NDP) 8164 votes
4th: Peter Crawley (PPC) 1728 votes
5th: Nira Dookeran (Green) 1327 votes
Turnout Total: 134029
October 15 2023
Kanata-Carleton and Federal Riding Redistribution
Basically Kanata-Carleton was split in half. The west side merging with Carleton and east side becoming Kanata.
2025 (Based On May 1st 2025 Numbers)
Kanata Population: 121458
Voters: 95142
Turnout: 74204
78%
Winner: Jenna Sudds (Liberal) 45053 votes
2nd: Greg Kung (Conservative) 26445 votes
3rd: Melissa Simon (NDP) 1713 votes
4th: Jennifer Purdy (Green) 870 votes
5th: Moinuddin Siddiqui (CEP) 123 votes
Carleton Population: 124416
Voters: 105889
Turnout: 86371
82%
Winner: Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) 43900 votes
2nd: Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) 39585 votes
3rd: Beth Prokaska (NDP) 1222 votes
4th: Mark Watson (Green) 565 votes
5th: Karen Bourdeau (UPC) 112 votes
Turnout Total: 160575
You can base the increase in Liberal voters by turnout or actual votes.
Final Analysis:
Carleton 2021
Population 131375
Voters 87807 turnout 70873
Carleton 2025 After the merge with Kanata-Carleton
Population 124416
Voters 105889 turnout 86371
The population dropped but the REGISTERED VOTER COUNT INCREASED by 15498 <- This number is the starting point for ALL THE CALCULATIONS.
Carleton 2021
Liberals got 24298
Carleton 2025
Fanjoy got 43900
24298 + 15498 + ndp votes (8164-1222=6942) = 46738 (2838 left)
So we can deduce again that some of the 8164 NDP voters were so disgusted with Jag that they went Conservative.
So lets say half voted Conservative and half voted Liberal.
8164-1222=6942/2=3471
24298 + 15498 + 3471 = 43267 (roughly what Fanjoy got)
If you remove the 15498 NEW Voters from Kanata-Carleton.
Result:
Pierre: 39585
Fanjoy: 43900-15498=28402 say + 6942 NDP = 35344
Fanjoy: 43900-15498=28402 say + 3471 NDP = 31873
Pierre Victory.
So yes. MERGING the west side of RED Liberal Kanata-Carleton with Blue Conservative Carleton added a shite ton (15000+) of Liberal voters into the riding. Turning the riding from Conservative to Liberal.
In conclusion. How would you explain going from 24298 votes to 43900 (almost 81% increase) even factoring the 8000 NDP votes?
No one has given another plausible answer yet.
Long Ballot Initiative:
Canadian Communists welcome court decision lifting election restrictions
https://www.standtogetherforcanada.com/single-post/canadian-communists-welcome-court-decision-lifting-election-restrictions saved from 2017
Organizer Tomas Szuchewycz who belongs to Marxist Leninist Party Of Canada.
Placed 86 Candidates into the re-formed Carleton riding.
Thank You @RealAndyLeeShow for finding out it was the communists who did this stunt.
Longest Ballot group declares victory in Poilievre’s former riding amid criticism
